WILD BLOG: Norden calls for 590,000 to 900,000 springers in 2009
NEW Jan. 25, 2009 / 3:30 p.m

ARLINGTON, Wash. - Back in the mid 1990s, Ward Norden was a semi-regular source for various magazine articles I wrote about salmon politics. I can't say that I always believed everything Ward preached, but I always appreciated his viewpoint ... because it sometimes came from WAY out in leftfield.

Ward has always struck me as a bit of a contrarian, and, by God, many of his outside-the-box observations have turned out to be spot-on.

In recent years, Norden has published a newsletter titled Albacore News, in which he serves up trends and observations about Pacific Northwest tuna runs. Every January, he also publishes a comprehensive salmon projection for the following year, with predictions about the health and general availability of all species of Pacific salmon.

Here's hoping that Norden's crystal ball is tuned to the right frequency in '09, because he's calling for some mond-boggling things to happen over the next 11 months: 590,000 to 900,000 spring Chinook in the Columbia River; record runs of Puget Sound humpies; and a resurgence of Chinook and coho fisheries in Puget Sound.

Without further ado, here's the 2009 edition of Ward Norden's Salmon News:

WARD NORDEN: Hello to all of my Albacore News readers

Welcome to the 18 issue of my projections of salmon returns to Northwest rivers for the upcoming year. This is a free service to decision makers in the sportfishing industry who must decide now the amount of products they will have to have on hand throughout the 2009 season.   

First of all, I must apologize for halting my Albacore News updates in midseason last summer. I became completely overwhelmed by building our new home in Quilcene, Washington, while preparing the old homestead for sale in Duvall. This year should be better for writing since the new house is done, even if the old one is not yet sold (hint, hint).   

Extraordinary Chinook year ahead: 2009 will be an extraordinary year for at least three species of salmon around the Pacific Northwest. For chinook, this year's returns are the first of three consecutive years that will be producing record returns in many rivers including the big Columbia.

Hopefully the power politics of salmon fisheries will allow the sports anglers to participate in this bonanza even in Washington State waters where anti-sportfishing and anti-selective fishing bias has driven management for decades.

The reason for this resurgence of our salmon runs is now being acknowledged worldwide even though this writer has been writing of it since early 2002. We are now beginning the ninth year of a global cooling cycle which has been unbroken except for a seven-week anomaly in June-July of 2004.  For the last four years the plankton of the North Pacific have been responding nicely to global cooling. These plankton are supporting an extraordinary food chain benefiting coastal-hugging salmon like chinook, coho, and pinks. The far traveling species of salmon like chum, sockeye, and steelhead have not benefited as much for reasons that are not yet clear.     

The most important result of global cooling in the North Pacific has been the increased mass of plankton off the Washington and Oregon coasts during the critical period of early summer, when young smolts first hit saltwater between May and July. Not only has the amount of plankton increased, but the dominant species have changed from temperate types to high-fat/high-protein northern species. That shift occurred in 2000-2001, which gave us record pink runs in Puget Sound plus record springer runs later in the Columbia.  Recent research shows that shift has been reoccurring for the last three years off our coasts.     

Now that our salmon are largely beyond the effect of that seven week disaster in 2004, things are really going to start to happen. Evidence to confirm this resurgence in longer-lived chinook comes in part from reports from Makah Tribal trollers near Neah Bay, where numbers of immature chinook have been extraordinary for the last two summers. Genetic testing of those Neah Bay chinook more than a decade ago showed those fish to be over 90% Columbia River stock, indicating fisheries on the Columbia will be amazing in years to come.

On January 4, I was reading the Seattle Times Outdoor column discussing some of the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife experts' projections for the upcoming season and decided it was time for a professional to be heard.   

Below is my projection by species in order of their appearance in our rivers:

COLUMBIA RIVER SPRING CHINOOK: The official government prediction of this year's spring chinook run above Bonneville Dam is 297,900 adults. I believe this number is extremely low (although I do applaud conservatism in both politics and biology). 

I believe that number will be closer to 590,000, although some of my projections over the last two years for this spring have been as high as 900,000. 

Maybe I am just scared of a number nearing one million this early in the cycle when it is more likely to occur in 2010 or 2011.       

Because of the colder ocean temperatures, it is very likely that the run will be delayed and compressed again, which will play havoc with the marketplace for commercial fish, allowing the sports anglers more opportunities and better fishing.        

If you are a sports angler who enjoys Columbia springers, plan your trip about two weeks later than usual.

OTHER  SPRING CHINOOK RUNS:  North of the California border, except for the Willamette River springer runs, most other spring chinook runs to our coastal rivers and Lower Columbia are small, but will also benefit from the great ocean conditions.  

In the Washington streams, I would again double the government's prediction (Cowlitz = 8000 vs. 4100, and Lewis = 4000 vs. 2200, etc.). 

Oregon's coastal rivers should also receive double last year's returns.      

My observations of the Willamette since the late 1960s long ago lead me to believe its springer runs march to a different drummer. This unpredictability may be because their ocean feeding grounds are unique or it could be the incredible abundance of squawfish eating young smolts when river conditions give squawfish (oops - northern pikeminnow) an advantage. 

Theoretically this run should number 75,000 this year, but I really can't say.

SUMMER CHINOOK RUNS: Summer chinook generally return between mid-June and late July.  There are three primary summer chinook runs in the Northwest. Of course, there is the summer chinook run into the mighty Columbia, but there is also an important summer chinook run into Oregon's Nehalem River that arrives around July 10, and, in Puget Sound, the Snohomish River system has its summer chinook arriving around July 4 (this stock has also been cultivated in Tulalip and Makah tribal hatcheries).       

The Columbia River's summer chinook tend to be a year older than the springers, so that run will be up and above government predictions, but not quite as much as with springers.  There should be about 400,000 crossing Bonneville.       

The Nehalem River's summer run (that river has at least four chinook runs of varying sizes) should be double last year's. This is a great fishery for those anglers preferring a smaller boat.        

Puget Sound's summer chinook (Snohomish system summer chinook) respond to other variables since they spend much of their saltwater lifecycle in plankton-rich Puget Sound and return a year earlier than the Columbia River's summer chinook. The primary problem facing Puget Sound summer chinook survival is bicatch in Puget Sound and San Juan Island commercial fisheries for chum and sockeye salmon, when these immature chinook weigh over 5 pounds.  

Returns of Snohomish summer chinook to the Everett area (including the Tulalip Tribal hatchery) will likely be double last year's return due to limits on the sockeye commercial fishery last summer.  Whether or not sports anglers benefit along with tribal commercial netters depends on whether selective sport fisheries are allowed around Mukilteo, Washington, and Southern Whidbey Island in the month of June.  

PUGET SOUND SOCKEYE: I am no longer doing sockeye run size projections for two reasons.  First is that if you do not know the locations of the summer feeding grounds, it is hard to guess survival rates.  Second is the politics that surround the Puget Sound sockeye run. 

If it is politically expedient to have a sport fishery in Lake Washington for the nonnative sockeye, that fishery will happen if the WDFW feels like the troublesome sports anglers deserve it.  Biology apparently is not much of a factor in fishing for this nonnative, introduced species (largemouth bass have been in Lake Washington longer than sockeye salmon).

PUGET SOUND CHINOOK: This year should be a great one for finclipped and non-finclipped Puget Sound chinook. Mortality for these runs of chinook has been much lower than usual due to the reductions in the commercial fisheries for sockeye salmon in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the San Juan Islands last summer. 

Because the plankton supply is stable from year to year in Washington State's nutrient-rich inland marine waters, any reduction in mortality on immature 5 to 10-pound chinook will have a dramatic effect on fisheries a year later when the fish are mature.      

The politics surrounding finclipped Puget Sound chinook continue to be incredibly convoluted. This writer will defy common sense, but there are good reasons that the "Tribes" are the only friends the sports anglers have if we are to have an opportunity to fish for taxpayer-raised chinook.

On the other hand, the state still has an anti-selective fishing, anti-sportfishing bias in spite of the fact that sportsmen and taxpayers paid to raise these finclipped chinook. There are strong economic and political reasons for this situation that have little to do with biology. This makes for strange bedfellows.      

Biologically, there will be a strong enough return of finclipped hatchery chinook to open Puget Sound sportfishing from Port Townsend to Everett and Seattle from May 20 through August 20.  Don't hold your breath.  The WDFW will fight it every step and demand payback in another fishery in the negotiations.

PUGET SOUND PINK (HUMPY) SALMON: Unlike Puget Sound's even year humpy salmon runs, which are the original hard-luck story, the odd-number year runs always seem to miss the devastating floods. Odd-year runs always seem to return in the maximum numbers the North Pacific will allow.       

The humpy return to Puget Sound's Snohomish System will rival and may even exceed the record return of 2001. The Skagit and Stillaguamish Systems will also get huge returns, but not to the scale of the Snohomish River runs.  As many as 3 million humpies may make up the combined returns to the three river systems.  A five fish daily limit in both saltwater and freshwater would hardly make a dent in these huge numbers and might actually benefit the species by improving nesting success due to reduced competition for nesting sites. 

Too much of a good thing can be a real issue with salmon spawning success.       

Humpies are nothing if not predictable. The first of the run will appear near Whidbey Island around August 10 with the peak being September 5 (give or take a couple days).  The only question is how big the humpies will be. If the Pacific continues producing mega plankton blooms of sub-arctic plankton, the two-year-old humpies will be huge (many over 9 pounds). 

We will all have our fingers crossed.        

Enjoy this fishery while you can because 2010 will be dismal for humpy returns at best. The Snohomish has already had two major floods since October.  The legendary bad luck of the even-year humpies continues.

COASTAL FALL CHINOOK (INCLUDING COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK): Fall chinook come into our rivers just about the same time as Puget Sound's humpies. Coastal fall chinook tend to stay at sea a year or two longer than their spring chinook cousins, so their average size generally is about 5-10 pounds larger unless they have been genetically manipulated like in many Washington State waters in the last century.       

On the Washington and Oregon Coasts, as well as in the Columbia River, August and September of 2009 will be extraordinary for anglers catching chinook in the 15 to 19-pound class as well as jacks. This is the first big return of chinook that went to sea after the catastrophic ocean conditions of early summer 2004. 

Few chinook will be seen in the 24 to 30-pound class that went to sea in 2004, but an above average number of trophy chinook over 35 pounds will be present. Overall, returns coastwide will be double those of last year and Oregon's Nehalem River should be particularly good in late August for anglers preferring a smaller venue than the mighty Columbia.       

The ultimate opportunity to intercept the huge and possibly near record number of coastal chinook will be, in this writer's opinion, at Neah Bay and in La Push, Washington, during July and August.   Last summer I spoke with representatives of the commercial troll industry out at Neah Bay, telling them that I expected that there would be so many chinook in July and August that the price paid might be crushed to as low as $1.50/pound at the dock. 

Sports anglers should plan their trips early if the quota is unduly small.      

Chinook returns to Washington State's inland marine waters should also be significantly better than last year's due to restrictions to sockeye commercial fisheries in the San Juan Islands last summer.  As always, access to these hatchery fish by sport anglers will be a political decision having little to do with biology.
      

COASTAL FALL COHO: Fall coho hatchery returns to Oregon and Washington coastal rivers plus the lower Columbia tributaries should be up almost 25% above last year. It would be more, but coastal upwelling currents weren't as good as they could have been off the northern Oregon coast last summer. The increase will be primarily due to the higher quality of plankton supporting the food chain.         

There will likely be a dramatic increase in the number of naturally spawned coho returning to all coastal rivers as well. The wild/feral parents of this year's coho adipose fin return spent 2004 in small streams unaffected by the 2004 catastrophe at sea. Since many of our quotas are set to supposedly protect from harm those adipose fins, hopefully there will be more lenient quotas offshore for sports anglers to catch finclipped hatchery coho.

PUGET SOUND COHO: The number of coho entering Puget Sound from the Pacific will be up dramatically this year and may be up 40% over last year. Since Puget Sound's resident coho population is stable, one would expect excellent fishing in Puget Sound and the Strait of Juan de Fuca during late August or early September.        

If only it were that simple!      

For Washington's internal saltwater anglers to enjoy really good fall coho fishing for those big "hooknose", the run must return prior to September 20th. After that they develop "lockjaw", refusing to bite lures as they prepare for the October spawning run up rivers.      

Conditions in the North Pacific play a big role determining when the big mature coho return. If the food supply offshore is bad such as in an El Nino, they delay returning in order to keep feeding to enhance the survival of the eggs. If the food supply is too good offshore, they stay out there as long as possible to boost fat supplies that increase the amount of fat in the eggs producing healthier young. 

For the last three years, feeding conditions offshore have been excellent and returns to rivers have been good but fishing has been poor. 2009 looks like it will be a replay of 2008 and 2007, except that the number of fish in rivers will be even higher this year. Will they bite and will the rivers be fishable in October, only time will tell.

Tight Lines to All.

- Ward Norden